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After a challenging 2022, mainland China’s economy will recover toward its potential growth of around 5.5% this year on the back of reopening. China’s reopening would be a driver of commodity demand (including energy) and the RMB exchange rate. Exports are poised to slow on weakening global demand, which means the growth drivers will rotate from external demand-led manufacturing to domestic consumption. The supply-side driver will shift from industry to services. Consumer confidence deterioration and the property market weakness suggest that policy may need to stay accommodative before normalizing.