Global Macro: How Slow Will We Go?
Wednesday, 22 March
8:45 am - 9:05 am (CST)
/ 22/mar/2023 01:45 pm - 22/mar/2023 02:05 pm
The global economy is slowing across all major regions on the back of tightening financial conditions, elevated geopolitical tensions and the lingering macro effects of COVID (especially in China). The latest data show tension between gloomy sentiment indicators and still-decent activity indicators supported by strong labor markets (the key to watch). Growth will be flat to negative for the rest of 2022 and into 2023 as higher food and energy prices and higher rates weigh on spending. Inflation is uncomfortably high and rising with signs of divergence between non-core (peaking) and core (still persistent). As a result, central banks continue to raise rates aggressively, with DMs lagging EMs. We expect most central banks to raise rates well above neutral, to get there faster than previously expected and to keep rates there for longer. With the Fed in the lead, a strong dollar will be increasingly problematic both economically and geologically. This is not a normal cyclical downturn, which suggests the upturn will not be normal either. Geopolitics and energy security will impact Europe's recovery and COVID policy will impact China's recovery; the US looks more normal.