• WPC 2024
  • March 18-22, 2024

Paul Gruenwald

S&P Global Ratings

Global Chief Economist

Paul Gruenwald is the Global Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings based in New York. He leads the economic research agenda and serves as the primary spokesperson on macro-economic matters for the company.

Before joining S&P Global Ratings in 2013, Paul spent almost five years at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) as the Asia Pacific Chief Economist, where he was responsible for helping set and direct ANZ’s Asian and global economic research agenda, as well as building the bank’s economic research efforts and profile in the region. Previously, Paul worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for nearly 16 years, where he led the team producing the IMF’s Asian regional outlook reports. He was also the IMF Resident Representative to Hong Kong and Korea, the Deputy Chief of the China Division, and did considerable work on both public (Paris Club) and private (London Club) debt restructuring issues.

Paul has a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University and a bachelor’s degree in Economics/Mathematics from the University of Texas.

Sessions With Paul Gruenwald

Wednesday, 20 March

  • 08:15am - 10:00am (CST) / 20/mar/2024 01:15 pm - 20/mar/2024 03:00 pm

    Executive Conference Opening Session

    Positioning for the next Upturn as Energy and Materials Transition Accelerate

    8:15 AM: Welcome to WPC 2024 - Mark Eramo, Global Head of Fuels, Chemicals & Resource Solutions, S&P Global Commodity Insights    
    8:20 AM:  President's Welcome - Saugata Saha, President, S&P Global Commodity Insights  

    Setting the Stage - S&P Global Outlooks - Moderator: Lyn Tattum, Vice President, Head of Events, S&P Global Commodity Insights    
    8:25 AM:  It’s All About The Landing - Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist, S&P Global Ratings

    Following a synchronized rise in policy rates, growth is now unsynchronized across major economies. The U.S. is outperforming whereas in Europe activity is flat. The common macro thread comprises strong labor markets and spending on services, fiscal tailwinds, and lingering core price pressures. Inflation has likely peaked as have policy rates, but central banks are on guard against declaring victory too early. Our higher-for-longer view applies both to policy rates and market interest rates, real and nominal. Caution among developed market central banks is constraining potential rate cuts in emerging markets. The next macro challenge is to "stick the landing." The risks to our soft-landing baseline look balanced. Strong labor markets and fiscal tailwinds are driving the upside, whereas uncertainties about the lagged transmission of cumulative rate hikes since early 2022 are driving the downside.

    8:45AM: From Ideology to Pragmatism: Multidimensional Transition - Atul Arya, Senior Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights 

    9:00 AM: Geopolitical Turmoil and Energy Challenges  - Carlos Pascual, Senior Vice President, Head of Geopolitics & International Affairs, S&P Global Commodity Insights
    9:20 AM: Continental Divide How North America and the Middle East create oil price cycles—and why this matters - Jim Burkhard, Vice President & Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility, S&P Global Commodity Insights
    9:40 AM: Q&A -  Moderator: Lyn Tattum, Vice President, Head of Events, S&P Global Commodity Insights